Expectations for Justin Morneau
With Opening Day just days away, I thought it would be a good thing to look at what we can expect from Justin Morneau this season. He had an intersting start to the spring. He had me fooled, thinking he might not even play Opening Day, but now he has been playing consistently and his bat is even starting to come around. As I have stated before, I don’t worry about spring numbers. Especially in the case of Morneau, because I am just happy to see him making progress by playing at full speed in actual games. It appears Morneau will be in the Opening Day lineup as it doesn’t seem like he has had any setbacks, lately, while recovering from his concussion.
Morneau is obviously the kind of bat that can change a game, or even a series, so having him batting fourth behind Mauer is a huge deal. The Twins have seen success the previous two seasons when Morneau has gone down with injury, but realistically they cannot expect the same thing to be true for a third season. Morneau was destroying pitchers when he went down last July. He was hitting a Joe Maueresque .345, while having already slugged 18 home runs and driven in 56 runs. Needless to say, he was on a tear and looking to put up career highs all over the place offensively. It is impossible to try and figure out what his addition to the lineup could have meant in the playoffs, but I know it sure couldn’t have hurt.
Is it realistic for Twins’ fans to look for Morneau to continue where he left off last July? No, obviously not. He’s just returned to regular baseball activities in the last month, so he will undoubtedly have some catching up to do at the plate. For me, one of the most important things for Morneau is how comfortable he can be playing. If he is able to feel safe on the field and play without worrying about the injury he should be just fine. And so far he seems to be doing that just fine, with reports have him going hard to turn singles into doubles and not hesitating on the basepaths worrying about injury. I am guessing April could be a slower start for Morneau than we are used to seeing. But if he is able to go out and play more than half the games I will be very excited. (more…)
Twins able to keep Diamond
The Twins completed a trade with the Braves today in order to keep Rule V draft pick, Scott Diamond. They sent reliever Billy Bullock to Atlanta in the deal. When I read this today, I yelled loud enough for my roommate to actually ask me what happened. Seriously, what are they trading a power arm like Bullock to the Braves for a soft-tossing, back-of-the-rotation guy? The Twins seriously lack power arms throughout the system, but yet they see it acceptable to trade a former sercond-round pick who struck out 14.7 batters per nine innings in Double-A last year? Yeah, maybe he walked a lot of guys too, but this system is full of guys like Diamond, not Bullock.
Don’t get me wrong, Diamond might be useful at some point, who knows, but I really prefer holding onto the power arm and seeing what he can do about his control. And, yeah, I am probably overreacting here. But it was entirely possible that Bullock could have made a splash at the big league level this summer. A long shot, yes, but still possible.
I am usually on management’s side with personnel moves, but not this time. I think they really screwed the pooch on this one. So I just wanted to vent that a little here, hopefully Mr. Diamond proves me wrong.
Twins’ roster locking in
Luke Hughes was reassigned to minor league camp, giving the utility job to Matt Tolbert. Jim Hoey was also reassigned to minor league camp. Meaning Jeff Manship is probably the last guy in the bullpen. Last week I wrote about how I thought Hoey might make the team to give the Twins a flame thrower out of the ‘pen, but they must want to let him work on his control and apparently work on a second pitch. I wrote back in February that I felt Manship could eventually turn into the new Matt Guerrier, a guy who was a long reliever who kept getting outs and earned more trust and eventually was getting the ball late in games. I don’t know that will be the case, but if he can be reliable in the sixth inning I will be happy. He shouldn’t really be needed late in games with Mijares, Capps and Nathan. Manship is a guy with some experience at the big league level, too, which is something a lot of the other candidates did not have in their favor.
Luke Hughes was on fire early this spring, but slumped pretty badly late. While Tolbert was hitting well and bringing a little more to the table defensively. I am sure Gardy liked the idea of having versatility and speed from Tolbert on the bench. Yeah, a right-handed power bat on the bench would have been nice. But how often is someone going to need to be pinch hit for in a lineup that sees Jason Kubel, Michael Cuddyer or Delmon Young batting seventh? Hughes should be up at some point, I am sure. He could provide some insurance at third should Danny Valencia get hurt or not perform.
I am fine with Tolbert making the team. He does play better defense that Hughes and can run for Jim Thome should he be on base late in a game. In reality, this isn’t the type of roster move that should truly affect the team. It is a long season and depth is nice to have. The bullpen seems to have options from the minors and Hughes provides depth to the infield, and let’s hope Trevor Plouffe can get it together and add to that depth as well.
Nathan or Capps, who should close?
As of Sunday morning, it appears that Joe Nathan will be the closer in Minnesota. It sounds like Ron Gardenhire announced this morning on his radio show that he was going with Nathan. With the roster coming together and the bullpen pretty much locked in, I thought it should be asked, who should close?
All the reports out of camp have been pretty positive about Joe Nathan and his return from Tommy John surgery. His velocity seemed to be where it normally was at this time of year and he was feeling good. The only negative thing I have heard so far was that his slider wasn’t as sharp as he would like it to be. I hope it’s something that will just take some time and getting used to before it regains it’s old form. But if the slider doesn’t come back to life, Nathan could be in for some trouble. The slider has always been Nathan’s nasty out pitch, and it is something to be feared by hitters when Nathan has it going right. According to Fangraphs, Nathan was throwing his slider about 30 percent of the time in 2009, while throwing the fastball almost 60 percent of the time. So if the slider isn’t there, hitters can pretty much sit back and wait on his fastball. And perhaps that is what hitters have done this spring. Nathan started off the spring in great fashion, but saw his ERA ballon to somewhere in the 11.0 range. I don’t really care to look at stats from spring training too much, but hearing reports that the slider isn’t there yet makes me think he has some work to do, regardless of his ERA.
Matt Capps on the other hand has been impressive this spring, having not given up a run. I think the Twins have to give the ball the Nathan in the ninth, though, even if Capps has been good this spring. Nathan has been the guy for years now and I feel like it could turn into an awkward situation if Capps got the call as the closer. Capps will be a very good set up man for Nathan and can provide insurance in case Nathan were to falter or just need a night off all together.
Where it gets tricky, I guess, is if Nathan were to struggle out of the gate. Would Gardy need to turn to Capps? Or how should he handle that situation, because we all know there will be nights where Nathan will have issues. Knowing Gardy, he will stick with his guy through thick and thin, so I don’t think we really have to worry about there being any drama, but it is still something to think about.
It is actually kind of a nice problem to have, though, because a lot of teams don’t have the luxury of having two experienced closers in the bullpen. But for now I think Gardy made the right call by saying he was going with Nathan.
Twins’ Bullpen taking shape
Well, so much for Kyle Waldrop or Carlos Guterriez being the reason the Twins cut ties with Pat Neshek…well for now at least. As of today they were both reassigned to minor-league camp. I was surprised by this, actually. I really had a feeling the Twins were going to go with Waldrop. They really seem to like him, but the fact they won’t add him to the 40-man roster makes me think maybe they just don’t like him all the much. The argument can be made that with a bullpen with so many new faces and question marks it wouldn’t make sense to go with a rookie in the ‘pen over guys with experience, like Jeff Manship or Glen Perkins.
Perkins has been pretty good this spring and the fact that he is out of options all but gaurentees him making the club. And I am pretty cool with that, as I wouldn’t want to lose him just yet. I think he can still be a valuable player for the club. Manship is a guy I thought would make the roster. Since spring started I have been preaching how he could be the new version of Matt Guerrier, but even now it looks like he is fighting to make the cut. Jim Hoey has held on longer with the big club than I expected after hearing about his history with control issues, but his last few outing have been good and he brings that power arm the Twins desperately need. The fact that he can hit the high 90s gives him the edge if you ask me. And again, I am cool with that. I like Manship, but if Hoey can keep the walks down he will be pretty darn valuable for the ‘pen.
Dusty Hughes still hasn’t given up an earned run this spring, and he seems like a lock, too. The Twins really liked him after facing him as a Royal last year. Liked him enough to put him on the 40-man roster, so he’s in. I hope he can be this good all year because if so, man, what a steal that would be. But let’s check those crazy expectations at the door.
With Perkins, Hughes and Hoey in the ‘pen that would round it all out. Manship would go back to Rochester and the Twins would have to decide what to do with Scott Diamond, the Rule V draft pick, who would have to go back to Atlanta if he was not on the opening day roster. I wouldn’t be surprised to see them ship a random prospect or some cash to Atlanta and let Diamond go to Rochester to start the year.
Joining my predictions would be Jose Mijares, Joe Nathan, Matt Capps and Kevin Slowey. If you ask me, that isn’t as bad of a bullpen as many suspected. Is it as scary or intimidating as the White Sox ‘pen? No, but these guys can all get outs too, just not with 99 mph fastballs. If this is how the ‘pen does end up looking there will be plenty of reinforcements waiting in the wings. Alex Burnett could make a contribution at some point, and Carlos Gutierrez is bound to be in Minnesota sometime this summer. Don’t count out Anthony Slama just yet either and Waldrop is a very good option, too.
